Bullish News Sentiment Drives Iron Ore Prices to Fluctuate and Rise [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, Dalian iron ore futures rose sharply, with the most-traded I2601 contract closing at 787, up 2.27% from last Friday. Traders were moderately active in quoting prices; steel mills remained cautious and mainly purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 781-785 yuan/mt, up 15-16 yuan/mt from last Friday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 790-795 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from last Friday.

Last week, SMM's global iron ore shipments totaled 35.76 million mt, up 6.9% MoM. Among them, Australia's shipments saw a slight rebound; Brazil's shipments dropped back slightly; non-mainstream countries' total shipments increased, with South Africa and India seeing growth, while Peru and Iran experienced declines. SMM's China iron ore arrivals totaled 27.39 million mt, down 1.89 million mt MoM. The continuous growth in iron ore supply put pressure on prices. However, news of an accident-induced shutdown at the Simandou mine over the weekend sparked pessimistic expectations about future supply increases, providing bullish support for ore prices. Meanwhile, as September approaches, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen, further driving ore prices to rise sharply. Nevertheless, considering the constraints of environmental protection-driven production restriction policies, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound this week, with limited upside space.